Democratic Candidate Analysis Update

Friday, 23 January 2004, 21:22 | Category : Politics
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Time for another look at how the race is shaking out….

Howard Dean: The Dean bubble has burst, and it’s hard to see how he could put the air back in. He’s battling for a third place finish in New Hampshire now, and third won’t do anything but hurt him. A strong second place finish might keep him in the race, and with Clark showing some weakness, second is still possible. But he needs to be close enough to Kerry to make Kerry look vulnerable. Prediction: 15%, 3rd place

John Kerry: In Billboard terms, he’s Number One with a bullet. Kerry is trying to play it safe in New Hampshire, avoiding a mis-step that would bring his percentage down. And with Senator Fritz Hollins of South Carolina signing on, he can make a push in South Carolina. Certainly not to win – John Edwards should have that state locked up – but to place or show significantly. But in New Hampshire, John Kerry has pretty much locked it up and thrown away the key. Prediction: 38%, 1st place

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