The Kudzu Files

Life Unscripted

No, this has nothing to do with TLC. Sometimes, you'll find yourself in the midst of a day that's just nice. You feel good, there are no crises, birds are singing, happy little forest creatures are, well, happy. And then, of course, you find out how foolish you are to think that the day was nice. This day became one of those right before lunch, when one of our mid-level managers walked in my office and asked if there wasn't a way I could restore the database to the way it was at about 9:30 this morning. Well, yes, there is, of course - that's part of what you pay for with Oracle. But it definitely wouldn't qualify as painless. He and his partner in crime had fired off a new procedure to do some updates, without really testing it first. It careened it's way through the database like a car that's lost it's steering in a crowded marketplace. Fortunately, I was able to restore the corrupted tables without having to roll the database back. Unfortunately, that process took until 5:30 this afternoon, which means that in addition to missing lunch, I also didn't get several other things done that needed doing. And since most everyone was gone by the time I was finished, there was no one around to proclaim me a hero. Such is life....

Car #1

Haven't found a picture of my 1960 Ford Falcon yet, but this one is just like it, except I had no whitewall tires:

Cars I've owned

Mark has been talking about Bad Cars Of The 80s; and while my old cars weren't bad cars, it still got me thinking about them. So I went looking for pictures. And found a few. I'm still looking for a picture of my first car, a 1960 Ford Falcon. But here's Car #2 and Car #3. Car #2, a 1967 Volkswagen Convertible:

and Car #3, and 1978 Datsun 510:

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Democratic Candidate Analysis Update

Time for another look at how the race is shaking out....

Howard Dean: The Dean bubble has burst, and it's hard to see how he could put the air back in. He's battling for a third place finish in New Hampshire now, and third won't do anything but hurt him. A strong second place finish might keep him in the race, and with Clark showing some weakness, second is still possible. But he needs to be close enough to Kerry to make Kerry look vulnerable. Prediction: 15%, 3rd place

John Kerry: In Billboard terms, he's Number One with a bullet. Kerry is trying to play it safe in New Hampshire, avoiding a mis-step that would bring his percentage down. And with Senator Fritz Hollins of South Carolina signing on, he can make a push in South Carolina. Certainly not to win - John Edwards should have that state locked up - but to place or show significantly. But in New Hampshire, John Kerry has pretty much locked it up and thrown away the key. Prediction: 38%, 1st place

Wes Clark: Clark is showing some small signs of losing steam, which is understandable with the other candidates coming into the state. So it will be hard to read much into his finsh in NH, unless his numbers implode (unlikely) or explode (even less likely). But Clark has had 4 months to polish up a message, and hasn't really done that. Now he has Michael Moore as an advocate. That seems to me to be an odd pairing, and not a particularly good one, for Clark at least. Prediction: 17%, 2nd place

John Edwards: Edwards is turning into a real wild card. Some polls I've seen put him as high as second. Second place for Edwards in New Hampshire would hit the Dean campaign like a torpedo on a dark night. But I think, despite his appeal, John Edwards won't be able to pull that many Yankee voters by Tuesday. And it won't matter - anything in double digits will be considered a win for Edwards. Prediction: 14%, 4th place.

Joe Lieberman: Somebody close to Lieberman needs to pull him aside and gently tell him it's over. He doesn't need to win in NH, but as a fellow New Englander, pulling in the middle single digits is embarassing. He's had no upward movement in any poll that I've seen in months. Lieberman is a good, solid, conservative Democrat, who has no chance. Prediction: 6%, 5th place.

Suicide isn't painless

A 17-year-old guy committed suicide in my town this past weekend. He was a pretty popular guy, an active member of his church group, a pretty good baseball player on a pretty good high school team. A mentor in Big Brothers. Not the kind of kid you think of when you hear about teenage suicides. But his mother had died of cancer last year. He and his girlfriend had just had a big fight. I guess he decided there wasn't enough left. But there was plenty left. A father who lost his wife, and now his oldest son. A younger brother who lost his mother last year, lost his brother last weekend, and now is seeing his father barely hanging on to stability. The guy had a friend, a teammate, who was at a party with him the night he committed suicide. He wanted his friend to come spend the night with him after the party, but the friend said no, he had something he needed to do. Now he's carrying around a load of guilt big enough to crush a city. His girlfriend is shattered. Teachers at the high school are in shock. many of the kids are beyond that. This is the third death this year - the others weren't suicide, but they're still gone.

Teenagers aren't going to stop committing suicide, no matter what we do. It's a horrible reality of our society. But there are things we can do. And maybe the first thing is to acknowledge that, no matter how small we may think their problems are, to them they may look insurmountable. From an airplane, buildings look tiny. From the ground, they appear huge. It's all about perspective.

Hug your kids.

And now, New Hampshire...

The news for John Kerry keeps getting better, and it's coming at the expense of Howard Dean. That isn't surprising, given the Iowa results, but it points up something I've been saying - that the only aspect of Howard Dean that many people ever warmed up to, was the belief that he was basically unstoppable. As soon as that bubble was burst, they began candidate-shopping again. This New Hampshire poll shows that the trend that began in Iowa a week ago, didn't just occur in Iowa. Since January 9, Kerry's numbers have gone 10-11-13-15-16-18-19-20-24, while Dean's numbers have gone 36-34-32-29-28-28-28-26. It's a virtual dead heat, as they say. And there's 5 more days before the primary. Wes Clark has bounced around between 18 and 24 - he seems to be on a bit of a downward trend now. That isn't surprising - he's been pretty much the only show in town for the past 3 weeks, now he has company. John Edwards has climbed from 3% on January 9 to 9% now. With no real expectations to meet, New Hampshire has turned into a real softball for Edwards. Joe Lieberman, meanwhile, has dropped from around 10% to his current 7%. Not much encouragement there.

One last Gephardt thought

I haven't heard anyone say this - except Mark touched on it - but I wonder if Gephardt's results in Iowa maybe say more about the current political influence of organized labor than about Gephardt. Gephardt was endorsed by most unions. Dean was endorsed by two unions. Neither ended up turning out much in the way of voters ('caucusees'). Unions have been declining as a political force for two decades now, but if Iowa is any indication, they've become almost a non-factor now. And if that's true, then the Democratic Party has to come to grips with a new set of core constituents. And yes, I know that the Democrats have been a collection of liberal consitituencies for a while, but labor was their one tie to mainstream America. If that's gone, they need to find a counterbalancing center fast, or they really will drift so far left that they'll become irrelevant.

Iowa: What means this?

Self-congratulation time: nine days ago, I wrote that it seemed like Howard Dean's support was softening. At the time, he was leading with a fairly comfortable margin, but it just didn't feel right to me. I sure didn't see Gephardt falling like he did, however. I expected Kerry or Edwards to make a push, but what they did was shove their way to the top. So, what does it mean? Here's my guess:

Howard Dean now has to run as Howard Dean the Candidate, not as Howard Dean the Presumptive Nominee. And HDtC is, I believe, much less attractive than HDtPN, if you get my drift. He may still do well in New Hampshire, although that's certainly not a given at this point. But beyond that, it's hard to see where HDtC can pull many votes.

John Kerry goes into New Hampshire on fire, and poised to dominate if Dean's support continues to fade. And the week after NH, there are primaries in Arizona, Delaware, Missouri, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Carolina, and Oklahoma. John Edwards will obviously be the favorite in South Carolina, but even there, Kerry's military background will play well. And there are no obvious favorites in the other states. A Gephardt endorsement would help immensely in Missouri. Kerry could have things essentially wrapped up by the Michigan and Washington primaries on February 6. But...

John Edwards is also a hot commodity. And he has no expectations to meet in New Hampshire, so anything beyond single digits helps him there. And he has the advantage of playing on home turf the next week.

Wes Clark and Joe Lieberman are also in Hew Hampshire. For Lieberman, NH is his only real shot. Like Gephardt in Iowa, he has to have a respectable showing - meaning 1st, 2nd, or a very strong 3rd - to continue as a viable candidate. And I don't see that happening. Wes Clark may be a strong contender in New Hampshire - he's been there while the others, except Lieberman, were in Iowa. But it will be interesting to see how he does, with John Kerry now bringing momentum and a strong military background himself, into the mix. Clark was widely seen as the Not-Dean candidate when he entered the race in September. Now that there's is another, mainstream Democrat alternative, Clark has a new set of dynamics on his hands.

More later...

Mars Casualty

NASA Administrator Sean O'Keefe announced yesterday that the Hubble Space Telescope will no longer be supported by maintenance missions, starting the end phase of HST. The direct cause is safety concerns over the Shuttle mission planned for 2005, that would have replaced the gyroscopes in Hubble. But because the entire Shuttle program is being retired, this means the end of any maintenance flights for the space telescope.

From what I've read, some jobs related to Hubble will be lost almost immediately. And it's more than just jobs. Somewhere around $200 million in instruments that would have been added to HST in the next Shuttle flight are now wasted.

As far as when Hubble's life will end, NASA scientists don't really know. Anytime between tomorrow and 2010, possibly. If a key guidance/tracking instrument fails, that would pretty much be it for Hubble.

What's so special about Iowa?

That's a question I keep hearing. There are lots of explanations around, but I'll take a stab at explaining it. The Three Rules Of Real Estate are Location, Location, Location. It's pretty much the same way with Iowa. The Three Keys To Understanding Iowa are First, First, First. After a year or more of positioning, performing, pretending, and proposing, the Iowa caucuses are finally an actual, countable vote (of sorts). After months and months of polls, Iowa is the real thing; at least, it's the most real thing until the next real thing, the New Hampshire primary, which is a bit more of a Real Thing because more people participate.

But it's still two small states. And two states that aren't particularly representative of the country at large. Iowa does a little better on this point - arguably, a Midwestern state is more representative than a New England state. But it's a debatable point. So, what's so special about Iowa? The winner of the Iowa caucuses isn't always the nominee. In fact, they often aren't. In 1980, George Bush won Iowa. In 1988, Richard Gephardt won the Democratic vote, while Bob Dole won the Republican side. In 1992, native son Tom Harkin won the Democratic caucus, but his being an Iowa senator kept most other candidates out of the state, so he won by default.

On the other hand, Iowa has often givena boost to candidates who didn't finish first. In 1972, George McGovern finished third, but a close third behind favorite Ed Muskie of Maine and the uncommitted vote. That finish boosted him in the media spotlight and helped him defeat Muskie for the nomination. In 1984, Gary Hart surprised everyone except himself by finishing second; a week later, he won the New Hampshire primary. Had the Democratic selection process not been geared to help Mondale specifically, Hart would very likely have ridden those successes to the nomination.

So, what's so special about Iowa? I think, mainly, it's the flip side. Candidates who unexpectedly do poorly in Iowa are generally finished. George Bush in 1988 is the exception, but Iowa nearly finished him. The field of candidates usually shrinks a little after Iowa, and barring remarkable comebacks, those who do poorly in Iowa don't last long afterwards. So think of Iowa as a sort of personnel department, doing those first-line job interviews so only legitimate candidates are presented for the later, serious interviews. Somebody's got to winnow the field, and cold, windy Iowa in January every four years steps up and does the job.

Iowa, Howard Dean, Where We Go From Here

I have this little thought bouncing around the fringes of my mind, that the next week isn't going to go the way Howard Dean and most political pundits foresee. I can't really point to anything in particular, and the latest poll I've seen still shows Dean leading Gephardt 25% to 23%, but I just feel a softening in Dean's support. And a large part of his campaign's raison d'etre is his aura of inevitability - or more properly, the aura of inevitability which the press has endowed upon his campaign (and which his campaign enthusiastically accepted). And if he falters even slightly in Iowa, what happens then? Who is best poised to take over, or at least rush into the void, however small it might be? John Kerry has been expected, for a year now, to be among the front-runners. He's never gathered much momentum. John Edwards has suddenly picked up a major endorsement, but that was surprising in and of itself, given his continued weakness in the polls (weakness meaning he's in Al Sharpton-Dennis Kucinich territory). Wesley Clark could have that nomination surge that some expected after he entered the race. And Richard Gephardt is sort of everybody's perennial second choice - but only their first choice ever gets their vote. But I watched an Iowa appearance by Gephardt the other night, and there just didn't seem to be any enthusiasm in the crowd.

So what do I think? I see Gephardt pushing for first place in Iowa, but unless he polls higher than the 23-25% where he's been sitting for months, I don't see any major bounce for him (as a commentator on Meet The Press this morning, people in Iowa have had 16 years to like Gephardt; if they haven't by now, they sure won't in the next couple of days). I'm thinking either Kerry or Edwards will get enough of a push, and at Dean's expense, to change the dynamics of the race. If it's Kerry, then he suddenly goes into New Hampshire as a hot property in perfect position to get white-hot with a win there.

Winter Oak

Barren leaves of ice
Stark and cold, uninvited
Mocking green that once prevailed
Singing crystalline songs
In the chill wind
Beauty and bleakness intertwined
In a slow winter's dance

Bad Cars of the 80s

Bemusement Zone has posted another entry in his Bad Cars of the 80s list. I would take minor issue with his categorization of the old Ford Falcon as "non-wonderful" - while it wasn't the greatest car made, my 1960 Falcon was nice enough, as all first cars are. And I'm waiting for him to include the 1984 Dodge Daytona on his list. The worst, worst, worst car-buying mistake I ever made.

The Man Against The Sky

By Edwin Arlington Robinson. For some reason this poem has been lingering at the edges of my conciousness for weeks, like some wild creature that keeps showing up at the edge of the woods to watch while you work in your garden.

"Between me and the sunset, like a dome
Against the glory of a world on fire,
Now burned a sudden hill,
Bleak, round, and high, by flame-lit height made higher,
With nothing on it for the flame to kill
Save one who moved and was alone up there
To loom before the chaos and the glare.....

Where was he going, this man against the sky?
You know not, nor do I.
But this we know, if we know anything:
That we may laugh and fight and sing
And of our transience here make offering
To an orient Word that will not be erased....

If after all that we have lived and thought,
All comes to Nought, --
If there be nothing after Now,
And we be nothing anyhow,
And we know that, -- why live?
'Twere sure but weaklings' vain distress
To suffer dungeons where so many doors
Will open on the cold eternal shores
That look sheer down
To the dark tideless floods of Nothingness
Where all who know may drown. "

(Full text here)

Leaf Day

Spent 5 hours Saturday cleaning up the leaves in the front. With the second-largest red oak in Mississippi hanging over part of my yard, I decided long ago there was no point in messing with leaves until it was finished for the year. Much leaf mulch for the garden.