The Kudzu Files

Everything you ever wanted to know...

...about what the CIA knew/thought about the Soviet space program in 1965.

Mars!!

Lots of talk about Mars right now. Closest approach in 60,000 years. Which is true, of course, but from some comments/questions I've gotten from friends, they seem to have gotten the impression that it's going to be huge the next few nights and then go away. So here's a few facts to settle things down a bit:

First, it's true that this is the closest approach in 60,000 years. Why? Here's a term for you: "perihelic opposition". Perihelion is the term for the closest approach of a planet to the sun on it's eliptical orbit. Opposition is the term used to describe the Earth and another planet being in a straight line drawn out from the sun. The significance, for planets outside the Earth's orbit, is that this is the brightest we see that planet, because we're seeing the full face of the planet. Perihelic opposition means that this lineup is occurring at the time the other planet is making it's closest approach to the sun. IOW, it's about as close to Earth as it ever gets. And that's what's happening now.

However: it took several months for this alignment to occur, during which time Mars was nicely visible (although in the early morning hours). And Mars will continue to be visible for several months, this time in the evening hours, as the Earth and Mars slowly move apart. So, enjoy the show now. Find somebody with a telescope, and look through it. But come back again a few times during the fall, Mars will still put on a good show.

Democratic Candidate Analysis

I wrote this a few months ago, but I've decided to update it:

Howard Dean: the 2004 version of Eugene McCarthy, but he may have more staying power; he'll get a push from the New Hampshire primary, if he lasts that
long, but has to show he can win somewhere besides New England. A strong showing in Iowa is possible.The Big Unless: we get really bogged down in Iraq, no WMDs are found by next spring, and world events turn against Bush. Then his anti-war, no tax cut stance will play well to a frustrated electorate Odds for nomination: 10-1

John Kerry: charisma of a soapdish; has to win the NH primary to have a chance in later primaries. Needs to do something to keep people from thinking of him as just another Massachusetts liberal. The Big Unless: if he wins in South Carolina, stays close to Gephardt in Missouri, and then doesn't stumble in Georgia and Ohio on Super Tuesday, he may have the nomination wrapped up by the first week of March. Closest thing to immunity on the defense issue of
any Democrat. Odds: 5-1

John Edwards: early excitement is fading. Only chance is to appeal to the populist vote, but he'll have to fight Gephardt for that segment. Vulnerable to public's dislike of trial lawyers. No experience and it shows. The Big Unless: stays really close to Gephardt in Iowa and finishes in top 2 while Kerry stumbles in New Hampshire Odds: 50-1

Richard Gephardt: perception is he's an old-line Democrat. Never been able to generate voter enthusiasm on the national stage. Just about has to win Iowa and finish strong in NH. The Big Unless: he molds a combination of strong labor
support that doesn't turn off the non-labor crowd while taking the populist crowd away from Edwards. Odds: 25-1

Bob Graham: flying below the radar right now. Health could be an issue. Probably doesn't have to do much in Iowa or NH; first battleground for him will be South Carolina, and he just about has to finish first or second there. Strong base in Florida, but not much national exposure. The Big Unless: Graham mainly needs to stay respectable while other Democrats fall away, and hope that nobody generates too much momentum in February. Odds: 15-1.

Joe Lieberman: Has to avoid being blown away in the early primaries, which traditionally don't support conservative Democrats. A decent showing coming out of February puts him in a strong position. But if he begins to rise to the top,
that "J" question may surface in subtle and not-so-subtle ways. Strong defense stance will provide cover Democrats don't often have. The Big Unless: An upset win in New Hampshire or Iowa sets him on his way. Odds: 5-1

Al Sharpton: will be treated with kid gloves by the other candidates, but not by the voters. The Big Unless: all the other candidates die except Moseley-Braun.
Odds: 5000-1

Carol Moseley Braun: irrelevant. If she's taken seriously, the campaign funds issue will be used to beat her into submission. The Big Unless: none. The Dems would renominate Jimmy Carter before seeing M-B win it. Odds: 50,000-1

Dennis Kucinich: as irrelevant as Moseley-Braun, but without the appeal to minorities and women. Only role will be as a liberal gadfly to make Howard Dean seem more acceptable. The Big Unless: see Moseley-Braun. Odds:
49,999-1

Wesley Clark: still not saying he's going to run, although the possibility seems more likely than a few months ago. Absolutely immune to the defense issue normally used to bash Democrats, but how would he play in the primaries? The last perceived strong-on-defense Democrat to run for the Presidency was Henry Jackson in 1980, and he didn't receive much support. His domestic policies are somewhat unknown. The Big Unless: blue-collar Democrats flock back to the party in the event he gets into the race; he should have strong support in that demographic. Odds: 20-1

Hillary Clinton: the 1,000 pound gorilla nobody is talking about. Says isn't running. Would have strong negatives outside of liberal circles. The Big Unless: Kerry, Lieberman, Gephardt, Edwards, Graham all stumble badly.
Odds: 50-1

The Joy Of The Box

Every Sunday, our pastor, after finishing the Children's Time where he calls the younger kids down front and has a short message for them, gives The Box to one of the kids. It's a brightly decorated shoebox, and the kid will bring it back the next Sunday with something in it - the only rule is, nothing alive or recently alive. The pastor then uses whatever is in the box as the basis for his message to the children that Sunday. Since he doesn't know ahead of time what's in the box, it makes for some interesting moments on occasion, like yesterday when the item was a Mickey Mouse bobblehead.

Anyway, for me the best part of this is when he gives the box to one of the kids and they head back to their parent's seat. Invariably, the expression on their face is one of complete and utter joy. It seems like such a simple thing to us, but for the child, it's their Big Moment. And they revel in it. This is carpe diem at it's finest. I wonder sometimes about the conversations that must go on at that child's house - are you *sure* you want to put your Super Water Squirter in the box? It's a shame that as we grow up, we seem to lose the ability to enjoy life so much. Sure, a child's life is less complicated than an adult's, but how many of our adult complications are really self-inflicted?

Image from the blackout

It's been so long since many people actually saw the night sky, they must have forgotten what it's like. We flood our skies with streetlights, floodlights, porchlights, building spotlights, neon signs, all the while thinking we're safer, I guess. But then a blackout comes along, and not only does crime not increase despite the loss of all those lights, but we see things that not too long ago people took for granted. This site has a great example, from a town north of Toronto. Enjoy.